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Credit: Xinhua Japanese - Guangxi Chiwan Autonomous Region Liuxi City evacuates torrential rain victims in emergency / 11 Jul 2020
crisis interventions

Crises Of Opposite Extremes — Floods In China And Japan; Wildfires In Siberia

What are Interventions?These are brief undertakings where Kyrios endeavours to avert or lessen the severity of a natural disaster in a bid to reduce loss of lives, destruction, and impacts of climate change.

Overview

Outcome

Rainfall across China and Japan were reduced as Kyrios redistributed rains as part of efforts to increase rainfall in Siberia to put out wildfires.

Crisis Situation

Timeline of Events

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An extraordinarily intense plum rain season in 2020 brought catastrophic rainfall across China and Japan. In China, severe flooding resulting from continuous, torrential downpours since June caused widespread damage to many parts of China. As of 10 July 2020, the unforgiving flood in 27 provincial regions resulted in 140 deaths and obliterated 22,000 houses. More than 30 million people were affected and 1.7 million were relocated. The series of dams constructed along the Yangtze river basin–with its most important one being the Three Gorges Dam–had been built to control floodwaters, but the recent surge in rainfall proved to be a great challenge for this flood-control system.

Torrential rains also battered southwestern and central Japan since 4 July. Some regions recorded more than 410 mm of rainfall in a mere 24 hours, causing 59 rivers to overflow and 123 mudslides across 18 prefectures. As of 8 July, the disastrous floods and rains claimed the lives of 58 individuals, forced 870,000 residents to evacuate, and destroyed 4,000 homes. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe declared the event to be an “extraordinary disaster”.

Weather forecasts in Japan and China indicated that heavy rainfall would persist, meaning that more people could suffer and perish as the nation reeled from the crisis.

In the meantime, thousands of kilometres to the north of China and Japan, another crisis was taking place. It was a stark contrast as unusually warm and dry weather has caused wildfires to ravage Siberian forests. Temperatures in June reached a new record of 38°C on 20 June. Since the beginning of the year, over 9.26 million hectares of land has been impacted by wildfires. Russian weather services also reported that the wildfires this year were 9.6% greater than that of 2019 during the same period. Apart from the burning of boreal forests in the region, the northern tundra regions and carbon-rich peatlands were also set ablaze, releasing long sequestered carbon deposits into the atmosphere, intensifying the greenhouse effect and worsening global warming.


Premonitions of watery calamities

In the months preceding the floods, Kyrios received revelations foretelling the disasters.

On April 2020, Kyrios heard the following prophetic poem and forewarned that East China regions will be struck by a water-related calamity:

巨风龙卷尘沙盖,
风云水转入沙尘,
天地水转入沙城,
海水急急破城墙,
万世众生淹水盖,
众生不理断失城,
紫霄云开洗怨恨,
万世众生死不明,
月亮消沉堕轨劫,
众生万浮永不生,
雨中沉心眼泪流,
众生不明何生存,
空睹众生愚世人,
枉负天父此用心。

When the catastrophic rainfall hit China in June-July 2020, Kyrios realised that the poem pertained to the floods in the Yangtze river basin. While Kyrios knows that the Three Gorges Dam is structurally sound, Kyrios felt that it was necessary to keep the dam and its surrounding regions safe from extreme rainfall, to prevent catastrophic harm to settlements along the river.

Following the premonition about China, on the night of 11 May 2020, Kyrios received prophetic visions about a disaster in Japan. The visions showed gigantic waves barreling towards Japan and 4 words “赤月剂光”, alluding to a water-related calamity upon the appearance of a crimson moon. In June 2020, a strawberry moon was observed by many all over the world, and on 4 July 2020, a downpour caused massive flooding and landslides in Kyushu, killing 60 people.

Kyrios maintained that the root cause of the intense plum rain event and Siberia’s disastrous wildfires lay in humanity’s greed and overexploitation of the Earth’s resources. Through environmentally damaging human activities, especially the burning of forests, humanity has severely damaged the thermoregulating systems that also govern Earth’s weather and climate leading to global warming and extreme weather events with catastrophic consequences.

Kyrios attributed the unusually intense plum rain event in 2020 to be one of such events. As global warming led to glaciers and ice sheets melting around the world at an unprecedented rate, larger volumes of water in the oceans lead to more evaporation in our atmosphere, forming more rain clouds which are then dispersed all across the world.

Kyrios further emphasised that due to the proximity of the intense wildfires in Siberia to the Arctic regions, the fires had significantly accelerated the melting of polar ice caps by heating up the ocean waters and the atmosphere, in addition to releasing smoke and haze to the region. This combination will contribute to a quick rise in sea levels worldwide.

What Did Kyrios do to mitigate the situation?

Unlike past interventions where Kyrios’s sole focus was to bring more rain to put out wildfires, this time round, Kyrios was faced with two opposite types of extreme crisis happening at the same time – too much rainfall in China and Japan, and fires in Siberia.

A few days after Kyrios initiated intervention efforts on 10 July 2020 to reduce rainfall over the region surrounding the Three Gorges Dam and Japan, the wildfire situation in Siberia was brought to Kyrios’ attention on 13 July. Kyrios commented that since the amount of moisture in the atmosphere was already determined, if rainfall along the plum rain belt was to be reduced, it would then need to rain more heavily elsewhere. Redirecting some rain clouds from China and Japan towards Siberia would enable the accomplishment of two goals.

Upon taking action on 10 July 2020, Kyrios forecasted that between 10 to 16 July, rainfall will reduce in Japan and China, especially in the area around the Three Gorges Dam (三峡大坝) in Yichang, China. True enough, on the 12 and 13 July, there was markedly less rainfall compared to the weeks of incessant and heavy rains prior to intervention, giving China a much needed respite from rapidly rising floodwaters. Kyrios then continued to actively monitor and intervene in the rainfall across China till 24 July. The comparison between meteorological forecasts and actual rainfall data each day showed that Kyrios’ interventions had significantly reduced rainfall in the vicinity of the Three Gorges Dam for 2 consecutive weeks.

Intervention in China
Satellite data from NASA Worldview showing rainfall had significantly reduced across China between and .

Whereas for Japan, after a week-long effort of helping to shift a stalled rain front and reduce rainfall, Kyrios decided to cease intervention on 18 July 2020 upon news of Japan’s participation in a joint naval exercise with the US and Australia in the South China Sea. Kyrios does not want to intervene in the disasters of countries increasing military spending with intentions of provoking wars, as wars would only bring more suffering to people, which is contrary to Kyrios’ endeavours that aim to alleviate suffering.

Intervention in Japan
Satellite data from NASA Worldview showing rainfall before () and after () Kyrios' intervention. The stalled rain front above Japan immediately began to shift east upon intervention.

In Siberia, as an indirect intervention of alleviating heavy rains in China and Japan, Kyrios “borrowed” and redirected rains from the plum rain belt towards Siberia from 13 July 2020 onwards, and forecasted that the fires would be largely put out between August and October 2020. A month later, on 11 August 2020, Kyrios ceased active monitoring and intervention in Siberia after most wildfires were successfully extinguished. Kyrios assured that rains will continue to put out fires till October, thus ensuring Siberia’s 2020 wildfire season comes to a definitive end.

Intervention in Siberia, Russia
Satellite data from NASA showing wildfires in Siberia before () Kyrios' intervention and on the day () when Kyrios wrapped up the intervention.

Kyrios said that such efforts only amounted to a temporary relief because these disasters are symptoms of a greater problem: the disequilibrium of the Earth’s systems caused by human actions. The disasters in China, Japan, and Siberia in 2020 are strong evidence of this imbalance. Thus, Kyrios urged all nations to set aside their differences and focus on resolving the climate crisis rather than be mired in factionalism and conflicts in pursuit of personal gains.

TIMELINE

China (10th July - 24th July)

10 July 2020 - Fri

Kyrios begins to reduce rainfall in China

On 10 July at 12pm SGT (GMT +8), through remote observation of the persistent heavy rains that has led to the unprecedented floods in many parts of China, Kyrios has decided to start reducing the rainfall in China, especially in areas surrounding the Three Gorges Dam (三峡大坝) at Yichang. At the same time, Kyrios is also going to help Japan mitigate the heavy rainfall.

⭐️ Kyrios says, "Between 10 to 16 July, rainfall will reduce in China, especially in the regions around the Three Gorges Dam"

Kyrios says that the intervention will require a few hours to take effect and forecasts that between 10 to 16 July, China should get a respite from rising floodwaters as rainfall reduces in China especially in the regions around the Three Gorges Dam.

Why the Three Gorges Dam?

Kyrios knows that the Three Gorges Dam is structurally sound but nonetheless, because the Three Gorges Dam sits at a geographically vital point in the Yangtze River, any potential failure would put hundreds of thousands of lives at risk. Hence as a precautionary measure and to reduce the impacts of the floods, areas surrounding the Three Gorges Dam are selected as the focal areas of Kyrios' relief efforts in China.

Kyrios' decision to safeguard the Three Gorges Dam regions is also influenced by the prophetic poem received in April 2020, of which 2 phrases in particular "海水急急破城墙,万世众生淹水盖" forewarned of extraordinary water-related calamity.

Why is the rainy season this year especially intense in China and Japan?

Since June, the rainfall along the midstream and downstream of the Yangtze River is almost 90% higher than previous years, while the rainfall in Lake Taihu is twice as high. Kyrios explains that the intensification of the greenhouse effect brought about by human activities has caused glaciers and ice sheets to melt around the world and hence the increased volumes of water in the oceans led to more evaporation in our atmosphere, forming more rain clouds which are then dispersed all across the world.

Data used for monitoring

We will highlight zones of potentially heavy rainfall to Kyrios ahead of time so that Kyrios can make the necessary interventions to prevent the rains from falling and accumulating in the areas of concern. We will use China's National Meteorological Centre (NMC) forecast vs actual "24-hour total rainfall accumulation data" to understand the effects of Kyrios' intervention and make observations of notable trends and changes. Forecasts are published at 6 am daily while actual data is published the next day at 8 am (GMT +8). We will also use NASA Worldview to look at overall rain patterns.

Figure: Widespread heavy rain across China on the 10 July 2019 as seen on NASA Worldview

13 July 2020 - Mon

⭐️ Kyrios begins to divert some rain clouds to Siberia!

On this day, Kyrios will attempt to shift some rain from the plum season rain belt above China and Japan to Siberia in an effort to ease floods and put out wildfires simultaneously, hitting two birds with one stone. Hence, we should be able to see China and Japan's rainfall being lower than the forecast and more rain in Siberia.

14 July 2020 - Tue

Kyrios' intervention bears fruit! Rainfall significantly reduced between 12-13 July.

After weeks of incessant and heavy rainfall across China since the start of the plum season in June, rainfall throughout China was contrastingly low on 12 and 13 July. Kyrios' intervention seems to have taken effect! Hopefully this will give China a much needed respite from the particularly strong rainy season.

Figure: Press the "Play" button to view weeks of persistent rainfall across China since 27 Jun. Notice the rain dispersion and sharp reduction in rainfall during the last 2 days (12 and 13 July).

24-hour Total rainfall accumulation data

12 July
Rainfall across China was light overall.
13 July
Low rainfall was recorded across China.
Source: Central Meteorological Observatory, China

17 July 2020 - Fri

Kyrios' efforts to reduce rain around the Three Gorges Dam paid off

Looking at the actual "24-hour total rainfall accumulation data" from 11 July 8am to 17 July 8am which is the period one day after Kyrios intervened, no heavy rains have fallen in the areas around the dam. Some rain was initially observed on the day when Kyrios started intervention (10 July) but Kyrios assured that it would dissipate after a few hours.

Figure: Day by day record of 24h accumulated rainfall data from China's National Meteorological Centre (NMC) from the day Kyrios started intervening.

The day-by-day comparison of forecast and actual rain further revealed that even when heavy rains were expected in the vicinity of the dam, actual rainfall recorded was much less.

The following images depict forecast (left) vs actual (right) 24-hour total rainfall accumulation map from 10-17 Jul 2019, published daily at 6 am and 8 am (GMT +8) respectively by NMC. Areas with the most intense rainfall are represented in pink (100-250mm of accumulated rainfall), followed by dark blue (50-100mm), light blue (25-50mm), dark green (10-25mm) and light green (0-10mm). "X" indicates the centre of mass of predicted rainfall.

24-hour Total rainfall accumulation data

10 July
11 July
12 July
13 July
14 July
15 July
16 July
Source: Central Meteorological Observatory, China

⭐️ Yangtze River Flood No.2 forms, Kyrios extends intervention

Despite Kyrios' intervention which had helped reduce rainfall over the past week, a news report published at 11:57 am cited that the water levels in the Three Gorges Dam are still rising as rapid inflow of water caused "Yangtze River Flood No.2" to form in the upper section of the Yangtze River.

Hence, Kyrios will continue to help reduce rain around the Three Gorges Dam, paying closer attention to the western regions of the dam where water from the upper section of the Yangtze River flows towards the dam.

Worrying forecast ahead

Forecast published today at 6 am expects heavy rain of 100-250mm till tomorrow 8 am at the southwest of the dam. Kyrios is immediately notified of this forecast.

Source: Central Meteorological Observatory, China

19 July 2020 - Sun

Heavy rainfall forecasted over the past 2 days significantly reduced!

Between 17 July 8 am to 18 July 8 am, the massive rainfall (indicated in pink and dark blue on the graphic below) forecasted in the upper stream of the Yangtze River was not only noticeably dispersed, actual rainfall in that area was also much lesser than anticipated.

Source: Central Meteorological Observatory, China

A day later between 18 July 8 am to 19 July 8 am, the intense rainfall expected to fall across the southwest area of the dam also turned out to be far lower.

Source: Central Meteorological Observatory, China

Thankfully, floodwaters safely passed the Three Gorges Dam on the 18th. This was the largest round of floodwater to have reached the Three Gorges since the flood season this year. The flood disaster could be much worse if Kyrios had not intervened in time and heavy rains as forecasted were left to run their original course.

It should be noted that Kyrios is not here to stop the rains and floods completely, but to prevent the worst situation from happening as most disasters cannot be completely avoided, only mitigated.

New round of water predicted to arrive around 21 July

According to the preliminary prediction of the Three Gorges Corporation, the Three Gorges reservoir may usher in a new round of water around 21 July. It is therefore critical that Kyrios continues to prevent rainfall near the dam and at the upper stream. Kyrios will also keep watch on the plum rain belt and continue shifting rain northwards to increase rainfall in Siberia.

24 July 2020 - Fri

Heavy rains near the dam were averted

Fortunately over the past few days between 19 July 8 am to 24 July 8 am, the regions around the Three Gorges Dam have not received much rain. On the 21st however, heavy rains were forecasted at the far northwest of the dam but once again, the actual amount of rainfall was much lower than forecast.

24-hour Total rainfall accumulation data

19 July
20 July
21 July
22 July
23 July
Source: Central Meteorological Observatory, China

Overall reduction in rainfall throughout the intervention period

Kyrios' efforts to reduce rainfall across China, especially in areas around the Three Gorges Dam, between 10 July to 24 July have been successful. Rainfall has not only been significantly reduced between the 10th to 16th across China as Kyrios forecasted, the actual rainfall compared to daily forecasts were also consistently lower throughout 10 to 24 July in areas around the dam. The flood crisis could have turned out much worse had Kyrios not intervened.

Since this threatening phase has passed, Kyrios will temporarily wrap up active efforts to reduce rainfall in China and focus on monitoring other disasters around the world.

We welcome meteorologists and flood control experts to cooperate and get in touch with us to mitigate future floods.

Japan (10th July - 18th July)

10 July 2020 - Fri

⭐️ Kyrios begins to reduce rainfall in parts of Japan

According to NHK World, several cities in Japan had received record breaking rainfall between 3 to 9 July. The city of Kanoya in Kagoshima Prefecture, for example, received more than a metre of rain, which is three times the average for all of July within just half a day.

Upon "observing" the conditions in Japan, Kyrios decided to intervene to reduce the torrential rains in Japan in conjunction with the relief efforts in China on 10 July at 12 pm SGT (GMT +8).

Kyrios forecasts that between 10 to 16 July, rainfall will gradually reduce across Japan and the country should get a respite from rising floodwaters as well.

What's behind the persistent rain over Japan and record-breaking rainfall?

According to meteorologists, in June and July, humid maritime air and dry continental air collide, creating a seasonal rain front in and around Japan. The front usually moves northward as the season progresses. However, a pacific high-pressure system normally responsible for pushing along the seasonal rain front in and around Japan has not happened in July, hence leaving the rain front stalled in the same area for more than a week.

Over Kyushu, narrow bands of rain called "trainings" had also developed. A training is a series of thunderclouds that form over the same area for an extended period of time. Showers and thunderstorms along thunderstorm trains usually develop in one area of stationary instability, and are advanced along a single path by prevailing winds, thus forming a "train" that repeatedly produces rainfall over the same areas, which often leads to flash floods. Officials at the Japan Meteorological Agency say they cannot recall the last time this occurred.

In addition, a plume of unusually strong water vapour called a 'wet tongue' surged into Kyushu and strengthened the stalled rain front.

The phenomenon can also be observed on NASA Worldview from 3 to 10 July.

Figure: Press the "Play" button to replay from NASA Worldview a stationary rain front hovering above Japan from 3 to 10 July.

13 July 2020 - Mon

Stalled rain front begins to shift east

Since Kyrios' intervention that began on 10 July, the stalled rain front finally started moving eastwards on the 11th, instead of remaining stationary above Japan. Although there are still heavy rains across Japan, at least the rains have started to move along rather than concentrate in certain locations.

The Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts that local heavy rains are expected to continue for 12 to 15 days due to atmospheric conditions remaining unstable over a wide area from western Japan to Tohoku as a result of an active weather front and low-pressure system extending over the East China Sea to the Sea of Japan.

⭐️ Kyrios begins to divert some rain clouds to Siberia!

On this day, Kyrios will attempt to shift some rain from the plum season rain belt above China and Japan to Siberia in an effort to ease floods and put out wildfires simultaneously, hitting two birds with one stone. Hence, we should be able to see China and Japan's rainfall being lower than the forecast and more rain in Siberia.

17 July 2020 - Fri

Rainfall significantly reduced from the 15th!

Since the stalled rain front began to move upon Kyrios' intervention, rainfall has significantly reduced across Japan between 15 to 17 July despite the Japan Meteorological Agency's forecast on 13 July that rains will continue for 12 to 15 days. Almost the whole of Japan has been relieved of rains over the past few days, including Kyushu (九州), the southernmost island of Japan, which has been hit hardest by continuous torrential rains and floods since 4 July 2020.

18 July 2020 - Sat

Low rainfall across Japan

Rainfall remains low across Kyushu and most parts of Japan as most rain fall over the sea.

Kyrios decides to stop intervention in Japan at 5pm (GMT+8)

Kyrios does not want to relieve disasters in countries increasing military spending with plans to provoke wars. Kyrios' relief efforts are done out of mercy for the people of Japan where floods and rains have resulted in 870,000 people to be evacuated, numerous deaths, landslides, and property damage.

However, Japan's military spending has been increasing in recent years and Abe's government has been finding reasons to expand the country's armaments and bring in offensive missiles. These actions have exceeded Japan's permitted self-defence capacity as stipulated in the Peace Constitution and violate the peaceful ethos of "renouncing war" set about in Japan's Constitution. Recently, there is also news of Japan's Involvement in further naval exercises with Australia and the US in the South China Sea regions.

Siberia, Russia (13th July - 11th August)

13 July 2020 - Mon

⭐️ Kyrios begins intervention to reduce wildfires

As part of Kyrios' efforts to alleviate the floods in China and Japan, Kyrios will attempt to shift some rain from the plum season rain belt above China and Japan to help relieve Siberia of some of its widespread wildfires.

This year is the second time Kyrios intervenes in Siberia's wildfire crisis. Read about 2019's intervention here.

Do the wildfires in Siberia have any impact on the weather in other countries?

Kyrios explains that intense wildfires in Siberia will significantly accelerate the melting of ice in the Arctic region and contribute to a rise in sea levels. Not only will coastal areas be at greater risk of flooding, the larger amounts of seawater will evaporate into the atmosphere and form rain clouds which are then dispersed to other non-coastal regions as well. This is why more frequent and extreme flooding events are happening across the world.

Kyrios warns that such disasters are merely symptoms of the bigger problems. The root causes of the disasters lies in humanity's greed and overexploitation of the Earth's resources. Through the burning of forests and other environmentally-damaging human activities, humanity is contributing to the intensification of the greenhouse effect and the warming of the Earth, leading to extreme weather events.

16 July 2020 - Thu

Wildfires reduced

It has been 3 days since Kyrios started intervention to reduce fires in Siberia, data from NASA Worldview suggests that wildfires in Siberia have gone down. However, many fires remain burning in the central Sakha region.

18 July 2020 - Sat

Drop in temperature

Kyrios mentioned that the efforts to relieve Siberia of its wildfires would also cause Siberia's overall temperature to drop. True enough since Kyrios started to intervene, the average temperature in Siberia has steadily dropped from 30°C on 14 July to 15°C on 18 July.

Source: Time and Date

Kyrios stops intervention in Japan

After much deliberation, Kyrios decided to cease intervention in Japan as Kyrios does not want to relieve disasters in countries which are increasing military spending with plans to provoke wars.

19 July 2020 - Sun

Rain fell over fires in the Sakha region

Between 16 to 19 July, large swathes of rain swept across the fires that were not put out earlier in central Sakha, extinguishing most of the fires there. Kyrios will continue to monitor the situation.

24 July 2020 - Sun

⭐️ Fires in east Sakha

Hopefully, as Kyrios concludes the intervention in China, Kyrios will be able to focus on putting out the large fires that have intensified over the past few days in the eastern and central parts of Sakha.

28 July 2020 - Tue

Sakha fires put out

Large fires in the east and central Sakha have finally been put out by rains between 25 to 28 July.

11 Aug 2020 - Tue

Kyrios wraps up intervention

During the last 2 weeks, fires in the Sakha region had reappeared between 29 Jul and 5 Aug. Fortunately from 6 Aug onwards, heavy rains began to sweep across the region once again, thus putting an end to the relentless fires blazing across the Sakha region.

Now that rains had successfully extinguished most of the fires, Kyrios has decided to wrap up this intervention. However, in a final statement, Kyrios assures that rains will continue to put out fires till October, thus ensuring Siberia's 2020 summer wildfire season will come to a definitive end.

Looking back, the scale of the wildfires this year compared to 2019 wildfires has been markedly more severe. Hopefully, Kyrios' efforts to mitigate the wildfires have helped to reduce the negative impacts and that the areas damaged will regain lush greenery soon.

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