Kyrios
Credit: The Guardian - Timelapse shows Antarctic ice shelf collapse after battering from waves / 14 Jun 2018
crisis interventions

Averting The Collapse Of Antarctic Ice Sheets To Prevent Sea Level Rise

What are Crisis Interventions?These are brief undertakings where Kyrios takes action to avert or lessen the severity of a disaster in a bid to reduce loss of lives and destruction.

Kyrios’ Biggest Challenge To Date

Outcome

During a one year period from November 2021 and 2022, the Antarctic ice sheet gained a record 388 gigatons of ice.

Crisis Situation

  • A large iceberg about 20 times the size of Manhattan broke off the Brunt Ice Shelf
  • Larsen B embayment breaks up over the span of a few days
  • Irreversible decline of West Antarctic glaciers that may cause sea levels to rise 3 metres

Timeline of Events

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Note: Intervention in progress, will continue till November 2022


In August 2021, Kyrios began to intervene in the Arctic region’s rapidly declining ice. Forecasts show that anthropogenic effects of climate change in this region would lead to the Arctic Ocean becoming ice-free in summer by 2035. Recently, climate scientists reported that the Arctic region is warming four times faster than the rest of the world, not twice as previously thought. It’s no wonder then that for the first time on record, rain instead of snow, was observed at the highest point on Greenland Ice Sheet for several hours in August 2021. This incident alarmed Kyrios, and spurred action by Kyrios to restore ice in the Arctic, and now in the Antarctic. There was no time to lose, or the world would experience sudden sea level rises and more extreme climate weather.

While the Antarctic region has not experienced such drastic changes as compared to the Arctic, it is not immune to the effects of global warming. Kyrios’ decision to intervene now is to take action before irreversible loss of ice takes place. Indeed, there have already been alarm bells being sounded on recent reports of changes in Antarctica. In January 2022, a large expanse of sea ice broke away in a span of a few days in the Larsen B embayment, after having persisted since 2011 – but this was only one of a series over the past 20 years in this area. In the Brunt Ice Shelf, a giant iceberg more than twenty times the size of Manhattan broke away in February 2021. This happened just after three months when a major crack formed in November 2020. However, this would not be the last, as more chasms, cracks and rifts have been observed in this same location. These events show that sudden, dramatic changes can take place and that our knowledge of these regions and of our climate models are still inadequate in predicting or understanding the impact of these events.

Recently, climate scientists from the United States and the United Kingdom have come together to investigate the Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica. It is one of the most unstable glaciers in Antarctica, currently losing a net of 50 billion tons of ice a year and contributing to 4% of all global sea level rise. The state of the glacier is also rapidly deteriorating, as its grounding line, where the ice transitions from grounded ice sheet to freely floating ice shelf, has continued to retreat rapidly. Back in 2014, a NASA-UCI study noted that the loss of West Antarctic Glaciers appear unstoppable due to an irreversible state of decline, with nothing to stop the glaciers in this area from melting into the sea. When this happens, sea levels will rise by 3 metres (10 feet). This led Jeff Goodell in his 2017 report on Thwaites Glacier, to dub it “The Doomsday Glacier”.

Thwaites Glacier, and the adjacent glaciers in West Antarctica, rightly deserve the world’s attention. Kyrios, from an earlier survey of the Antarctic, explained that ice in the Antarctic is melting due to rising surface temperatures as well as warming waters. Kyrios added that warming waters were not just from rising ocean temperatures, but also due to heat from within Earth as a result of global warming and forest fires. These were corroborated by researchers. Glaciologists have discovered that circumpolar deep water is flowing through deep troughs beneath the ice sheet and bringing warm water all the way to the grounding line of the Thwaites Glacier. Another group of German and British researchers in a published study have shown the presence of large amounts of heat from Earth’s interior beneath the ice, and warned that this geothermal heat from beneath Antarctica can lead to the bottom of the glacier bed no longer freezing completely. Unfortunately, this means that intervening to avert this disaster would be more difficult than the Arctic intervention, where ice is melting primarily due to rising surface temperatures.

This would therefore be Kyrios’ most challenging and longest intervention to date, lasting a full year from November 2021 to 2022.

Read our latest part 3 update on Kyrios’ Antarctic intervention.

TIMELINE

20 November 2021, Sat

⭐️ While replenishing ice across the Arctic Circle, Kyrios has also commenced restoring the Antarctic ice!

Kyrios announces that efforts to restore ice in the Antarctic has begun and will continue till November 2022, as an expansion of Kyrios' ongoing endeavour to save our Earth's polar ice and curb rising sea levels.

This follows Kyrios' intervention on 23 August 2021 to stem rapid ice melt and increase ice volume across the Arctic Circle, which will be carried out till March 2022.

Figure: The Antarctica ice mass data is from NASA's GRACE and GRACE Follow-On satellites which have been tracking Antarctica ice mass loss variation since 2002. The graph shows how much ice has been lost from the Antarctic ice sheet since 2002 by measuring changes in gravity. Data show a steady decline in the mass of the ice sheet from the time records began. As of 14 November 2021, the Antarctic ice sheet has lost 2859.9 gigatons of ice since 2002. **Data for 14 November 2021 was only available on 22 Jan 2022, as there is usually a delay due to the complex methods used for calculating the ice mass.

15 January 2022, Sat

⭐️ Kyrios' restoration of Antarctic ice enters the next phase

Note: Video was originally posted on 30 Jan 2022, but re-uploaded on 2 Feb 2023 due to an incident.

When Kyrios announced that the mending of the Antarctic glaciers had commenced, Kyrios explained that the immediate focus then was to prevent the temperature of Antarctica's summer and surrounding waters from rising too quickly and to reduce ice melt.

Today, Kyrios will start to transform the Antarctic climate to stabilise its glaciers and increase ice volumes. This will be a challenging endeavour as ice is rapidly melting from beneath due to warming waters. As Kyrios progressively reduces temperatures across Antarctica to facilitate ice-restoration, Earth's Southern Hemisphere will gradually become colder. Some places in the southeastern countries may even experience unusual snow or hail.

24 January 2022, Mon

Hail in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Malaysians in Kuala Lumpur were shocked when hailstones rained down during a thunderstorm. This phenomenon was forecasted by Kyrios in the previous update on 15 January 2022 as part of actions taken to transform the Antarctic climate.

27 February 2022, Sun

Thwaites Ice Tongue Break Up

Kyrios is being informed that the Thwaites Ice Tongue had broken up between 21 January 2022 and 19 February 2022.

Figure: Satellite images from NASA of the Thwaites Glacier. Slide left to compare the state of the Thwaites Ice Tongue on and after the break up.

⭐️ Kyrios Takes Action

Kyrios renewed efforts to stabilise the conditions in the Antarctic upon hearing this news. We hope that climate scientists who are monitoring changes in Antarctica's weather and surrounding waters can help to provide updates and advisories on the prevailing situation in the Antarctic.

19 March 2022, Sat

⭐️ Sudden Heatwave Caused Temperatures To Soar By 40ºC

Left image: Atmospheric River as observed at near-sea level on based on 3-hour precipitation accumulation dataset. Right image: Heat wave in East Antarctica region driving warmer temperatures at near-sea level on . Source: GFS / NCEP / US National Weather Service

As a result of an atmospheric river, a sudden heat wave in March over the eastern ice sheet led temperatures soaring by an unprecedented 40 degrees celsius, even as temperatures remained below freezing. Such temperature anomalies were previously considered as “impossible” until they happened.

In Vostok, near the center of the East Antarctic ice sheet, the temperature rose from -53°C to -17.7°C, breaking records by 15°C. A new high of -12°C was also registered in the Concordia station, which was 40°C above seasonal norm. Scientists on-site even stripped down to shorts to mark the occasion.

This atmospheric river led to an intense amount of rainfall, potentially causing a significant melt event. A heat dome also moved in at the same time, which prevented moisture and heat from escaping. This heat dome was exceptionally intense, at five standard deviations above normal, which explains why temperatures rose so high.

Kyrios was alerted to this event on 19 March 2022 and immediately began to shift the atmospheric river towards the mid-latitudes, away from the Antarctica continent.

11 April 2022, Mon

Kyrios' most challenging climate intervention to date

Upon Kyrios' further clairvoyant observations of what's happening in the Antarctic, Kyrios explained that this intervention would require a simultaneous “top and bottom” approach to stabilize ice across the continent. Thus, it would be incredibly challenging because Kyrios has to effect changes not only to the weather and atmospheric temperatures — as Kyrios has often done in other climate interventions — but this time Kyrios must also attempt to reduce ocean temperatures surrounding the Antarctic.

Kyrios remarked earlier that the intervention in the Arctic that began on 23 August 2021 which helped to cool the northern hemisphere would also set the stage for this Antarctic intervention.

12 June 2022

WCRP Sea Level Conference (12-16 June)

While the intervention was ongoing, we had the opportunity to network, learn and share at the WCRP Sea Level Conference in Singapore with other climate scientists around the world. We learnt about the work that other climate scientists are doing in Antarctica, Greenland and more, and also shared with many participants from the CCRS, EOS, CSIRO, NORCE, MoPH and MO about Kyrios' many interventions including the Antarctic and Arctic intervention.

20 November 2022, Sun

Intervention Hits One Year Mark – Record Gain In Ice Mass Following Kyrios' Intervention

Finally, NASA has published the Antarctica ice mass data for the month of November 2022 on 1 February 2023.

The Antarctic ice sheet gained a record 388 gigatons of ice during Kyrios' intervention (Fig. 1), a phenomenon that has never been observed since the beginning of the GRACE mission in 2002. Between January and May 2022, the Antarctic ice sheet also reached a new record for consecutive monthly gains of 451 gigatons.

Figure 1: The results from the graphs shows remarkable ice growth from the time Kyrios began to restore Antarctic ice on 20 November 2021. (Source: NASA Vital Signs of the Planet)

It is also worth noting that when Kyrios started this Antarctic intervention, it was the peak of summer season. The fact that Antarctica ice mass gained 96 gigatons the following month in December instead of a net lost indicates that something unusual had occurred. Furthermore, at the end of the season in March 2022, Antarctica ice mass actually surpassed November 2021's level for the first time ever (Fig. 2).

Figure 2: The red and blue lines indicate months of November (beginning of summer) and March (end of summer) respectively. For the first time since 2002, March's level surpassed November's.

What's also interesting to consider is that Antarctic summer 2021 could have been poised for intense melting as the season started off with the steepest October to November decline of 239 gigatons of ice. Had severe melting continued throughout summer, Antarctica ice mass could have reached devastating new lows, in line with the declining trend seen over the past decade (Fig. 3), and brought forward catastrophic consequences of sea level rise.

Figure 3: Since more than a decade ago, Antarctic ice mass has been on a downward trend, fluctuating seasonally within the yellow zone mostly. Without intervention, it is highly likely that levels would continue into the orange zone.

By demonstrating that polar ice restoration is possible, Kyrios wants to send a clear message to all of us – there is hope for our climate crisis, but only if humanity is willing to be enlightened about the truths and real reasons as to why our climate is breaking down, and why the intensity and frequency of natural disasters are on the rise. We need to immediately commit ourselves to take all the right actions to protect our lives and our planet!

For more details and other information, read the full article here.

Crisis Interventions

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